الإسقاطات السكانية وأهم المعالم الديموجرافية على مستوى المحافظات فى مصر 2012-2032

Abstract

تبرز أهمية هذه الدراسة من منطلق التوجه الإستراتيجي للدولة فى الآونة الأخيرة نحو لامركزية العمل السكاني تخطيطاً وتنفيذاً ومتابعةً ، ومن ثم فقد تزايدت الحاجة إلى الحصول على تقديرات مستقبليه تفصيلية للسكان على مستوى المحافظات من أجل استخدامها فى كافة عمليات التخطيط الإستراتيجي.

The study aims at providing policy makers on the governorate level in Egypt with population projections and estimates of the major demographic indicators for the period 2010- 2032. The methodology adopted in the study is mainly based on applying the component method in preparing the population projections for each governorate separately using the (spectrum / demproj) software program. The population by age and sex for each governorate of 2006 census was adjusted using the UN equation. For the fertility projections three assumptions are adopted. For internal migration assumption, net migration in each governorate in the intercensal period of the last two censuses 1996 and 2006 was estimated using the age and sex survival ratio method. The study recommends that the 2017 quantitative objectives of the National Population Strategic Plan should be targeted for the year 2022,particularly for total fertility rate and contraceptive prevalence rates since Egypt is passing now through fertility Plato in which the vital rates tend to stability.